NBA Picks

After dropping 29 points in Game 1, Jalen Brunson finished Game 2 with just 17 points on 6 of 19 shooting. The last time he scored under 20 points was in Game 5 of the first-round series against the Pistons. In that one, Brunson finished with 16 points on 4 of 16 shooting. He came out with a 40-burger in Game 6 and closed out the series. Dating back to the regular season, Brunson has scored no fewer than 27 points in each of his last five games following a sub 20-point effort. In those games, he averaged 34.4 points. Brunson rarely posts back-to-back duds on offense, and there’s no way he bucks that trend in Game 3.

Robinson logged at least 20 minutes in each of the series' first two games, and he finished with at least five points once. In seven games played with at least 20 minutes this season, Robinson averaged 7.7 points and hit the Over five times. 

Hield scored 24 points - 22 without Curry in the second half - in Game 1 and 15 points in limited minutes in Game 2. Game 3 will have a much more cohesive game plan. He’s very active in the offense so far versus Minnesota, sitting tied with Jimmy Butler with 33 total field goal attempts. Hield has been red hot from deep as well, making nine of his 17 3-point attempts (53%). Hield’s early player projections for Game 3 come in north of 15 points with those models projecting 32 minutes. However, he logged 40 minutes in Game 1 once Curry went down and that potential uptick in paying time should have his forecasts beyond 18 points. I’m being a touch conservative with my number for Hield on Saturday, calling for 17 points from Golden State’s guard. That should have his Over 13.5 points priced at -224 rather than the shorter ask of -130 at DraftKings

Longtime-starter Mike Conley has seen reduced minutes this series. That's meant more playing time and a bigger offensive role for sixth-man Donte DiVincenzo who is averaging 30.2 mpg over his last five contests. DiVincenzo racked up five assists in Game 2 and dropped four dimes in 33 minutes in Game 1. The O/U for his assists tonight is set at 3.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last 10 games. Being able to grab the Over at plus money is tough to turn down. 

Buddy Hield has been on a heater over his last three games, and I expect him to stay hot in Game 3. Across his last three outings, Hield has averaged 24 points and six triples while shooting 50% from the field and 64.3% from beyond the arc.

This series has been played at a sluggish tempo with both offenses preferring to slow things down. The Warriors also had the highest rated defense in the NBA after trading for Jimmy Butler in February. Not only will the pace and Golden State's stingy defense negatively impact Anthony Edwards' scoring output but he might be at less than full strength since he's been playing with a bum ankle. He finished with 20 points in 34 minutes in Game 2 after reaggravating that injury and he has now scored fewer than 26 points in five of seven playoff games.

Podziemski has been a key player for Golden State and his role expands whenever Curry is sidelined. He averaged 14.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.8 apg in 33 starts during the regular season. Podziemski had six assists with six rebounds in Game 2, after pulling down eight boards and dropping three dimes in Game 1. He's logged more than 32 minutes in five of nine playoff games, and will likely get another significant workload tonight. He can be a bit inconsistent with his shooting which is why I'm reluctant to bet his points props against a tough T-Wolves defense. However, he'll get plenty of rebounding opportunities in Golden State's small-ball lineups and his increased ball-handling in Curry's absence will lead to an uptick in assists.