NBA Picks

Minnesota used the week before the playoffs to come out of the gates to a 61-51 lead against the Suns in Game 1. Before closing that series, the Wolves openly wanted to get another week off before this round. Meanwhile, the Nuggets may have spent much of this week catching their breath, thanks to the minutes their starters logged to slip by the Lakers. Four of their starters averaged more than 39 minutes in what was supposed to be an easier series. Denver can trust its clutch performances as long as Jamal Murray is on the court. Minnesota knows it cannot wait to find its footing.

Conley picks his moments. When the Timberwolves absolutely need a bucket, when the game is teetering in the clutch, when tensions are highest, those are the moments Conley squares up from 3. And those always seem to go in, especially late in the season. Conley shot 44.1% from deep following the All-Star Break on 5.6 threes per game. But if the logical adjustment for Minnesota to consider is more Nickeil Alexander-Walker and less Conley, then the veteran point guard will not get looks in those moments. His scoring could plummet.

Minnesota should have two of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards on the court for all of Jamal Murray’s minutes. Their intention will be to force the ball out of his hands, especially in the fourth quarter. Murray will have open teammates capable of knocking down 3-pointers, namely Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, not to mention Nikola Jokic open on some rolls. Even if Murray has only two assists heading into the final frame, a Timberwolves defensive emphasis could boost it.

Towns averaged 19.25 points against the Suns, a worse defense than the Nuggets but also a worse matchup for Towns. Against Denver, he should feast. The Nuggets will sell out to stop Anthony Edwards more often than Phoenix did, learning from the Suns’ mistake. That will create chances for Towns. Furthermore, he was not hunting his shot until late in that first-round series, taking 16 total in the first two games and then averaging 16.5 in the last two. His lower-body strength is gradually returning after his meniscus surgery just seven weeks ago. That will help Towns most on the offensive end.

The Timberwolves welcome Aaron Gordon shot attempts. They let Karl-Anthony Towns guard Nikola Jokic, largely one-on-one, with Rudy Gobert on Gordon so Gobert can float further from his assignment and provide the defensive help that separates Minnesota from the rest of the league. Gobert will leave Gordon open, especially when Gordon spaces to the corner. In this five-game matchup last postseason, Gordon hit a 3-pointer in three of the games, going 4-of-12 overall. He will get his looks, and they may be uncontested. All he has to do is make one.