NBA Picks

Brooks has cleared this prop in his last two games without Booker and in six of his last eight without Booker, part of averaging two points more per game when without his backcourt partner.

Jalen Green has compiled 18.6 points per game over the last 5 games at home, 3.6 more than he's compiled over the course of the season at home.. This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SGs have posted 20.2 points per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Magic, making this a strong matchup for offensive efficiency.. The Orlando Magic have played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court, which ought to increase plays for the Phoenix Suns.. The Phoenix Suns have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup vs. the Orlando Magic may be a positive one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted a colossal 5.4 free throws per game over the last 10 games (most in the NBA).

The Kentucky product is averaging 3.4 makes on 8.9 attempts per night, and Tyrese Maxey just went 4-for-11 from deep in his first game back from the All-Star break. While that’s the first time he’s cashed the Over in triples in five appearances, there’s reason to believe Maxey will get hot from deep. The Philadelphia Sixers take on the lowly New Orleans Pelicans tonight, who are allowing point guards to average 3.55 threes per game. Maxey is also shooting 40.2% from downtown on the road, averaging 3.5 makes. 

When it comes to scoring, the 76ers's poor 46.0% field goal rate ranks 6th-lowest in the league this year.. This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 9.1 shot attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans, resulting in a difficult matchup.. The 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the 76ers.. Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.1 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

The 18.5-point spread is one of the highest I’ve seen for any game all season, but the lopsided lean is warranted. Sacramento struggled to play competitively with a healthy roster, but the losses of Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and De’Andre Hunter will make it even tougher for the Kings to compete.

San Antonio has won seven straight and covered in six of them, while Sacramento has lost three straight by an average margin of 30.3 points while scoring no more than 94 points. The Spurs are 15-10-1 ATS at home, and the Kings are 9-19 on the road.

De'Aaron Fox has averaged 22.5 points per game over the last 8 games when playing at home, 4.3 higher than he's averaged overall this year at home.. The San Antonio Spurs rank as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The Spurs have played at the 4th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

The guard returned from a month-long absence on Friday evening and showed out off the bench, leading the Miami Heat with 24 points. Dating back to January 10, before he suffered an injury, Herro has cashed the Over in five straight appearances.

Tyler Herro has averaged 20.2 PPG on the road across six outings, and he averaged 21.5 points last season against the Memphis Grizzlies across two meetings.

The Grizzlies have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the league this year.. The Heat have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should increase opportunities for the Memphis Grizzlies.. The Grizzlies have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

The Pistons’ intensity has been grinding opponents down all year, and there’s every reason to expect a similar script tonight against a Bulls team that’s 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games.

In contrast, Detroit has covered the spread in six of its past seven victories. After the visitors’ double-digit wins over the New York Knicks (twice) and Toronto Raptors this month, I’ll happily lay the points here. Chicago turned its roster upside down at the trade deadline, and the hosts are on a seven-game skid. Tonight’s mismatch doesn’t feel like a chance to turn things around.

Cunningham is the main driving force behind the Detroit Pistons’ miraculous season, and he didn’t miss a beat in his return from the All-Star festivities. Cade proceeded to drop 42 against the New York Knicks on Thursday in a huge win at Madison Square Garden. The guard is averaging 25.7 PPG in 2025-26, and he’s cashed the Over in five of his last six outings. During that span, Cunningham has scored 30+ points three times. The 24-year-old is averaging 27.6 points on the road, and Detroit is in Chicago this evening. 

It is not just that the Houston Rockets have gone 3-10 against the spread in the last month. It is also that they have fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.1 points in those 10 ATS losses.

Durant is a walking bucket, and he’s lived up to expectations in his first season with the Houston Rockets. KD is averaging 26 PPG, which ranks 11th in the league. He erupted for 35 points on Thursday against the Charlotte Hornets. The veteran has hit the Over in points in just three of his last six, but Durant is averaging 27.3 points per game on the road this season, and the Rockets head to MSG tonight to face the Knicks. 

If Devin Booker sits, Phoenix loses 25 points per night, plus its best pick-and-roll decision-maker. The Suns’ half-court offense becomes more isolation-heavy and easier to scheme against. With the Suns on zero rest, I’ll back the Blazers to cover.